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Comments on Niti Aayog's National Energy Policy

                         NITI Aayog
National Energy Policy (NEP) - July 2017
                                                                                              Shankar Sharma                                                 
  Power Policy Analyst, Mysore

Draft NEP (DNEP) has many good points. It looks for the scenario for 2040 whereas Integrated Energy Policy (IEP) of 2008 had done so for year 2031-32.  But the general approach of NEP gives rise to serious concerns. The issues impacting the demand and supply of energy have not been considered from social and environmental (Climate Change) perspective.

True objectives of National Energy Policy (NEP)
George Monbiot says: “We cannot hope to address our predicament without a new worldview. We cannot use the models that caused our crises to solve them. We need to reframe the problem.”

Our energy sector, which is a major contributor to GHG emissions, will need a paradigm shift in the way we view it.

True objectives of a NEP can be stated as follows.  (A) To laydown clear policies/directions in choosing a set of most appropriate energy technologies to meet the legitimate demand of energy of all sections of our society on a sustainable basis at the lowest overall cost to the society; (B) this has to be done keeping the twin goals of ensuring equitable welfare requirements of all sections and the proper upkeep of our natural environment in the context of the looming threats of Climate Change; (C) it should fully comply in letter & spirit with all the relevant Acts of our Parliament and the associated rules/polices, including International obligations.   

In analysing the draft NEP the primary approach needed in the formulation of such a policy can be of help. In this context the following five issues should have been considered.

1. Rational approach to projecting a realistic energy demand and the associated issues
2. Correct approach in the choice of suitable technologies and the global experience
3. Diligent analysis of costs and benefits of each of these technologies
4. Social and environmental impact analysis
5.  Compliance check with the associated Acts, rules, and policies

The analysis of the DNEP is best done considering the highlights of its projection by 2040.  The summary of DNEP projections for year 2040 can be seen in the tables 4 to 12.

Some of the key implications projected by DNEP by 2040 (DNEP, page 98) are:

·         Share of non-fossil fuel based capacity in electricity: 57% - 66%
·         Per capita energy demand: 503 kgoe/capita in 2012 to 1055-1184 kgoe/capita in 2040.
·         Energy related Emissions per capita: 1.2 tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent/capita in 2012 to 2.7-3.5 tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent/capita in 2040
·         Per capita electricity consumption2: 887 kWh in 2012 to 2911-2924 kWh in 2040
·         CAGR of electricity supply (Ambitious scenario): 5.5% between 2012-2040
·         CAGR of primary energy supply (Ambitious scenario): 3.6% between 2012-2040
·         Overall Import dependence (including non-commercial energy): 31% in 2012 to 36%-55% in 2040.
·         Reduction in emissions intensity: 45%-53% by 2030 from 2005 levels

From these bullet points two issues stand out as clear indicators of all the major concerns for the future, if our energy sector were to proceed as projected in NEP.
a).  Nearly 3 times increase in per capita energy related emission by 2040, as projected in NEP, is a very poor reflection of our national priorities as far as human health and the upkeep of our natural resources are concerned. For a much increased population by 2040, such a high per capita emission not only means huge health implications, but also vastly increased exploitation of our natural resources, which are already a concern as in 2017, and as reflected by the unacceptable pollution levels of air, water and land.
b). If our energy resource import dependence can be as high as 55% by 2040, the foreign exchange bill will be enormously high, and the energy security can remain as a niche term in books.

It is amazing that DNEP, as a critical national policy, has not considered the implications of such vast increases in GHG emissions and the import bill from social, environmental and economic perspective.
·         Critical elements of our natural resources will be vastly degraded; probably reaching a point of no return much before 2030;
·         With so much fossil fuel burning (as indicated by 3 times increase in GHG emissions) what will be the status of air quality, and the contamination of land and fresh water bodies; similarly how much of our natural forests will be left by 2040?
·         While the growth in population, urbanisation and industrialisation are already putting extreme pressure on the population density parameters, can the land diversion for all these additional power/energy plants improve the scenario?

Energy Demand Concerns
Whereas the total energy demand between 2012 (as the reference year) and 2040 is projected to grow between 2.7 and 3.2 times, the draft projects that only 17% energy savings is feasible by 2040 between the BAU and ambitious scenario (Table 4 of DNEP).  When we consider the gross inefficiency prevailing in our energy transportation/transmission and utilisation in different sectors of our economy, the potential to conserve energy through measures such as efficiency, demand side management and conservation can be seen as huge. Hence the savings feasible between the BAU and ambitious scenario could be much higher; likely to be much more than 25%.

The electricity sector alone is known to have the potential to reduce its demand by as high as 40% through efficiency improvement measures. But sadly, the DNEP has assumed only 6.5% reduction in demand by 2040 (DNEP table 6).  Additionally, the share of electricity in total energy demand by 2040 is assumed as only 26% by DNEP (DNEP table 7), whereas the global projections say that by 2050 more than 60% of global energy consumption is likely to be in the form of electricity.  Keeping the convenience of using electricity, the zero pollution at the point of usage, and the fact that much of electricity can be obtained by REs, it is highly desirable to have a high percentage of electricity in the energy basket. Similarly, the sectors such as transport, pumps & tractors and buildings also have huge potential in energy demand reduction.  Hence, all possible efforts should be put into reducing the total energy demand by much more than 25% of the BAU scenario in 2040. 
Projected Energy Demand (Table 4 of DNEP)

Pumps & Tractors
% reduction in energy demand in 2040

DNEP also indicates that the demand for coal may go up by 2.5 times.  DEEP indicates that the overall Import dependence (including non-commercial energy) will go up from 31% in 2012 to 36%-55% in 2040.  The combined effect of burning all these hydro carbons (in solid, liquid and gaseous forms) in increased quantities by 2040 will lead to a tremendous addition to GHG emissions, which will be a disaster from the Climate Change perspective.  This scenario will negate the letter and spirit of India’s INDC to UNFCCC.  The continued dependence on the import of hydro carbons, which in India’s case already has huge concerns w.r.t the foreign exchange considerations, will have increased economic and security implications (Table 5 of DNEP).

Segregation of Energy Demand by fuel (Table 5 of DNEP)

Solid Hydrocarbons
Liquid Hydrocarbons
Gaseous Hydrocarbons

Whereas the nuclear power has not enjoyed the confidence of our population, its low percentage in the national electricity capacity basket (about 2%), the enormous capital cost, the need to depend on imported fuel/technology, and the cost/risks associated with nuclear accident/spent fuel, cannot make it a suitable technology in Indian scenario.

Similarly dam based hydro power have many issues of concern to our densely populated society, such as the forced displacement, loss of forests & agricultural lands, and the degradation of river ecology.  The REs too, if not managed properly, have the issues of ecology and land diversion.

Electricity Demand (Table 6 of DNEP)

A        Ambitious
% reduction in electricity demand in 2040

Share of Electricity in Energy Demand (Table 7 of DNEP)


Additionally, the unlimited demand growth has huge economic and natural resource implications, such as forest felling, mining related issues; land diversion, enormous costs of transmission systems etc.

Considering all these electricity production technologies in a holistic manner, it has to be said that there are definitive limits to how much the nature can provide to meet our escalating demands.  Hence energy demand management should have been a major consideration in NEP, which unfortunately has not been given the due importance.

Energy Supply Technologies
Keeping in view the continued growth of the huge population base; unmet demand of about 25% of the population; the socio-environmental impacts of vast energy demand; and the Climate Change considerations, the primary approach should be to determine the minimum quantum of energy required by our society to eliminate poverty on a sustainable basis.  Hence the objective should not be to meet the unlimited amount of energy demanded by few sections of the society, but to find a manageable limit to the overall energy demand.

The country cannot afford to increase the hydro carbon demand to increase by vast margins (table 5 of DNEP), which is projected to lead to overall energy import dependence to 36% -55% in 2040.  One of the most feasible options in this regard is the fuel switching for transport sector, which has been discussed in the DNEP.  Whereas the deployment of electric vehicles is passingly mentioned, this option should have been supported by a concerted action plan to minimise the liquid and gaseous hydro carbon import dependence. The maturity of this technology can be gauged by the fact that France has decided to ban the sale of Gas and Diesel Vehicles by 2040, and many countries have plans to massive introduction of EV vehicles by 2030. Energy storage technology, led by vehicle battery technology, is going through unprecedented progress and has provided confidence to transport industry to aspire for EV technology as the mainstay by 2030.  Keeping in view of the pollution impacts and foreign exchange burden of liquid and gaseous hydro carbon, India should plan for massive induction of EV vehicles by 2040.

Many of the heating and cooling applications in industries have the potential to be supplied by solar and bio-energy. Adequate encouragement is needed.

Similarly, the usage of coal, diesel and gas in electricity generation can and must be minimised by 2040.  Coal usage has been on a steep downward slope across the globe since 2010, and many countries have plans to completely stop its usage before 2040.  India, with a vast potential of renewable energy sources (REs), and a low per capita energy need is uniquely placed to make an early move a coal dependent scenario to an RE dependent scenario.

Whereas the fossil fuels have the concerns associated with GHG emissions, pollution of land, air and water, liquid and gaseous fuels also have the import dependence issues.  The TAPI gas pipeline and other similar proposals to import gas from gas rich regions have many difficult issues to contend with and may not be resolved in the near future.   Similarly, the dam based hydro power from Nepal and Bhutan has some limitations, and is also constrained by domestic considerations. Our experience of imported nuclear power technology has not been very encouraging.  Additionally, all these conventional technologies are dependent on large unit sizes and complex grid, which has known to be against the principle of energy justice.

Whereas complete elimination of fossil fuel use in Indian scenario may be extremely difficult in the foreseeable future because of multiple reasons, a high percentage of REs is considered techno-economically feasible by 2040/50.

A number of reports from around the world have shown the techno-economic feasibility of very high percentage of REs in the electricity grid.

(i) A famous one among these is a simulation report by Prof. Mark Z. Jacobson and others of Stanford University, which says that it is feasible to meet all energy needs (not just the electricity) in a WWS scenario (Wind, Water and Solar). The fact that he was invited to make a Written Testimony to the United States House of Representatives Committee on Energy and Commerce Democratic Forum on Climate Change is a clear testimony to the importance of this study to the global community.
(“Roadmaps for 139 Countries and the 50 United States to Transition to 100% Clean, Renewable Wind, Water, and Solar (WWS) Power for all Purposes by 2050 and 80% by 2030”.

(ii) A Greenpeace Germany report released on the eve of recent G20 meet says that wind energy and solar power will be the cheapest form of power generation in every G20 country, including India, by the year 2030. 
(“Comparing electricity production costs of renewables to fossil and nuclear power plants in G20 countries”,

(iii) A recent modelling from Australia says: The more ambitious a clean energy target is, the lower Australian wholesale electricity prices will be, according to new modelling by energy analysis firm RepuTex. 

(iv) A recent study report by the Ministry of Power, GoI has established that the system balancing with 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind is achievable at 15-minute operational timescales with minimal RE curtailment. With the suitable modification to the grid parameters, operational philosophy and the introduction of adequate energy storage facilities, small size hydro/pumped storage, and real time demand response techniques it should be able to have more than 75% RE in our electiricty grid, as the experience from other parts of the world indicate.
 (“Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India’s Electric Grid”

Many such reports/experiences are listed in two publications as below:
(I) “Power Sector Road Map for Tamil Nadu – 2050”; April 2016
(ii) “Integrated Power Policy”, Sept. 2012

In order to move towards a very high percentage of REs in the energy sector, including that in electricity sector, the govt. should come up with a definitive and much more ambitious target of GHG emission reduction by 2040/50 backed by clear targets at 5 years interval.  This will go a long way not only in improving our energy scenario but also in drastically reducing the pollution of our natural resources. 

Such a policy will help to change the electricity generation capacity scenario in the country by a considerable margin, with coal, gas and nuclear power capacity at very low levels, if not eliminated completely.  The objective of NEP should be to advocate major changes to the data provided in Table 10 and 11 of DNEP, and these tables should look clearly dominated by REs, and not by any of the conventional energy sources.                                                                     

Electricity Capacity (Table 10 of DNEP)


Gas Power Stations
Coal power stations
Carbon Capture Storage (CCS)
Nuclear power
Hydro Power Generation
Solar PV
Solar CSP
Onshore Wind
Offshore Wind
Distributed Solar PV
Other Renewable Sources

Primary Energy Supply (Table 11 of DNEP)

Renewable & Clean Energy

Future electric power system
Electricity Generation
The power network of 2040 should have a large number of small size roof top SPVs OR wind turbines OR community based bio-energy/CSP type solar power plants, because of which the need for a stronger/reliable integrated grid will increase, but the nature of the grid will be different. There can be very few conventional technology power plants such as few gas based plants and dam based hydel plants, and pumped storage plants, which are already constructed and which have long life cycles.
The chief scientist Dr Alan Finkel’s report on the future of the national electricity market in Australia gives a glimpse of how profound the change will be in future. The report cites data suggesting that by 2050, 30% to 45% of annual electricity consumption could be supplied by consumer-owned generators; namely, rooftop solar photovoltaic and battery storage.

It is credible to forecast that instead of the need for more of EHV and UHV transmission corridors transferring large chunks of power over hundreds/thousands of kM, the electricity grid of the future will be required to be strong and reliable at lower voltage levels, and may be basically designed to connect a large number of mini/micro grids.  In view of large number of small size roof top SPVs OR wind turbines OR community based bio-energy/CSP type solar power plants, and mini/micro grids expected in future, the distribution system will have to discharge a very critical role in maintaining the stability of the network in connecting power sources and consumers, and in ensuring reliable and quality supply in the most optimal way.

In order to minimise the distribution losses the distribution companies can be expected to have much higher ratio of 11 kV to LT lines as compared to what it is at present, and much larger number of pole mounted distribution transformers of appropriate size to cater to the requirements of individual consumers. High Voltage Distribution Systems (HVDS), which are already in practice in places like Delhi, to avoid unauthorized use of grid electricity, can become the mainstay of the system. Each mini/micro grid can be expected to become a Smart Grid and equipped with suitable ICT and protection systems to be able to be connected to the integrated grid. In such a scenario the reliability of supply to individual consumers can be expected to be of very high order, because of the essential need to keep a reliable connectivity at all times to individual generators who may supply the excess electricity to the grid.

Other Issues of concern in DNEP

Chapter 1:
§  The link between the per capita energy consumption and HDI is not true under all situations. True only at very low consumption level.
§  Why should the share of manufacturing in our GDP go up to 25% from the present level of 16%? The implications on resource mobilisation, pollution loading should be at our focus.
§   Why should we strive to attain such high consumption levels; it is neither essential, not feasible due to huge population base and nature’s limits?
§  The dichotomy prevailing in the Indian energy scenario is made clear in IESS modelling. Why should we accept the increase in per capita energy consumption by 2040 as a foregone conclusion, while we also say that energy demand could be brought down over the default scenario by 17% by suitable interventions?  We must make all possible efforts to keep our per capita energy consumption which will also reduce the import dependency and the corresponding costs. When we objectively consider our huge population base, gross inefficiency prevailing in energy usage, alarming rate of natural resources depletion, the global warming implications etc., maintaining the per capita energy consumption at about the same level as on today or even reducing it while aiming to lift our masses from the clutches of poverty at the same time should be the primary plank of energy policy.  In this context it can be said that both the Integrated Energy Policy (IEP) of 2011 and the National Energy Policy (NEP) have started on a wrong footing.

Chapter 2 - Four key objectives:

§  The energy policy should not have the specific objective of supporting the goal of rapid economic growth.  High GDP growth rate paradigm should not lead to high energy demand.
§  The objective of NEP, instead of focusing on assisting in maximising the GDP, should be to determine that lowest quantum of energy which will pull the weaker sections of our society from the clutches of poverty at the lowest overall societal cost.
§   Section 2.2.2 refers to efficiency. Hence, a lot more focus on all aspects of energy efficiency will be needed.  This aspect also indicates the vast scope for containing the energy demand growth as compared to the ‘do-nothing’ scenario.              Energy efficiency, Demand side management (DSM) and energy conservation measures must have the highest priority in our efforts to provide energy/electricity to all by 2022. As National Electricity Policy has stated, these measures should form the fundamental plank of our energy policy.

Chapter 5 – Coal:

§  The section refers to the projection of higher coal production upto 2040 (125 GW of coal power in 2012 is likely to go up to more than 330-441 GW by 2040). Such a growth projection in coal production/consumption is in complete violation of the letter and spirit of Paris agreement on Climate Change.  No argument should be able to support such a growth in coal production/consumption, if our society is serious about the impacts of Climate Change and the immediate pollution impacts on the health of our people. NEP should be very clear on this aspect. It should be considering the peak coal year much before 2040 instead of ways to meet the demand for coal by the industry even after 2040.
§    This statement should be challenged: “The thrust of the NEP will be on interventions required to optimally exploit our coal resources, while addressing the overall environmental concerns related to coal mining. Sustained levels of high domestic production would greatly advance India’s energy security. Coal gasification technology and methanol economy also hold value for India to commercially tap our coal resources. In the instant discussion here, we recommend measures, which directly relate to enhancing coal production, optimum use, and efficiency in use (high efficiency, low emission).”
§  In a paper in Nature of 28 June 2017 with a the title “Three years to safeguard our climate” a group of prominent scientists, policymakers, and corporate leaders have issued a warning that if the world doesn’t set greenhouse gas emissions on a downward path by 2020, it could become impossible to contain climate change within safe limits. Being the third largest GHG emitter, India cannot continue to ignore such science based warnings to reduce the GHG emissions.  In view of the suitable alternatives available to replace the coal, the country should seriously embark on such replacement at the earliest.

Chapter 6 - Renewable Energy:
§  Section 6.1: REs will need the continued monitory/policy support of any sort for many more years, if not for decades, in order to minimise the GHG emissions from the energy sector. Having pushed our environment to a dangerous level through reckless burning of fossil fuels all these years, the society needs to pay the suitable costs to make the REs the mainstay of the power sector, and to mitigate Climate Change.
§  While considering larger role for dam based hydro power and nuclear power in the country, the overall cost to the society from social, economic and environmental perspectives need to be carefully/objectively considered.
§  This statement in 6.5.3 should be challenged: It is recognized that due to inherent qualities of lower cost via economies of scale and ability to meet varying demand for power, grid based electricity is preferable to renewable solutions. Therefore, efforts will be made to first electrify villages by extension of grid. However, small size of habitations and remote locations, often render grid-based solutions unviable. The electrification of such habitations will not be postponed until grid reaches, and in the short run off-grid solutions will be provided.
§  This should be said against 6.9.2: In addition to requiring vast tracts of land, the large size RE sources such as solar or wind power parks also need additional dedicated transmission lines, which will be in use for a small percentage of time in a day (such as about 6-8 hours a day for solar power park).  In view of this potential wastage of the financial resources due to low utilisation factor of the associated transmission systems, and also for the ease of grid integration, it will be necessary to plan for a large no. of small or medium size REs (say of the size less than 5 MW) all over the grid, preferably very close to the existing 11 kV lines. Such a distribution of the generating sources will also assist in overcoming the voltage instability, which is haunting the grid operators now.

Chapter 7 – Nuclear Power
There is the critical need for the NITI Aayog to deploy effective economic decision making tools, such as ‘costs and benefits analysis’ (CBA) and ‘options analysis’, while also addressing the following main concerns of CSOs before accepting “nuclear power technology as being the only base load power source offering green energy, needs to be promoted even if its share in the overall mix is not high enough now”.  Without convincing the public on such issues, the NITI Aayog cannot expect people’s approval of its energy policy.

Chapter 8 – Electricity
§  It is true that, India, being a tropical country and with a tradition of simple living, can be expected to set an example to the world of how energy ought to be produced and consumed. It is also true that the potential for electrification of energy demand is immense, in other sectors such as transportation (Electric Vehicles), cooking, agriculture and industries. Hence, there is a strong case for a shift towards electricity across demand sectors.  But the projection also makes it imminent that the electricity sector has to become vastly more efficient and of very low carbon footprint in nature, which basically shall men very low levels of fossil fuel usahe in this sector.  When we also keep the need to contain GHG emission in proper perspective, the future path for the energy sector in the country becomes fairly clear.
§  Keeping in view the social, economic and environmental concerns of conventional electricity production technologies such as coal, gas, and dam based hydro and nuclear power, the only option left for the country is to get all of its electricity and much of energy from renewable energy sources. Such a transformation requires massive and concerted efforts in making the production transmission/transportation and utilisation of electricity highly efficient with huge emphasis on demand side management and energy conservation. Such a scenario by 2040/50 will also require focused efforts to reduce the effective demand to a manageable level, instead of continuing to believe that the per capita electricity consumption has to match that of world’s average.  The constraints of our natural elements will not permit an unlimited growth in energy/electricity production/consumption.  NEP should base its policy recommendations on this fundamental reality.
§  While advocating an effective energy policy for the nation, NEP should base its recommendations on technical feasibility, sustainability, and the lowest overall cost to the society, instead of concerning itself with the upfront financial costs alone. Upfront financial costs should not be the major concern.  As Sir Nicholas Stern has said in his advice to the UK govt. ‘The Economics of Climate Change’, the Climate Change could have very serious impacts on growth and development. The costs of stabilising the climate are significant but manageable, while delay would be dangerous and much more costly. The benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh costs.  This Review has estimated that certain scenario of Global Warming may result in poor countries like India suffering economic costs of about 20 % of its GDP, whereas the mitigation of the same now can be achieved at a cost of about 1% of present GDP.  The Review also indicates that more we delay in addressing the Global Warming the higher we will have to spend in mitigation of the same in future.  In this background adequate investment to minimise the Global Warming impacts of conventional power plants is considered worth the “huge financial cost”. Hence, the upfront financial cost of the required transformation pales to insignificance when we consider the ecological & economic costs of not quickly transforming our energy systems.
§  As mentioned correctly in section 8.8.5 of the draft, clear and definitive policy for next 30-40 years will help in attracting the vast private capital required for such transformation. Hence, the policy to move our energy sector to the 2045/50 scenario should be spelt out in as much details as possible so that private investors can take confidence in such investments. Such a policy guideline will require due diligence and effective consultation with various stakeholder groups before finalising the policy framework. 

Chapter 13 - Overseas Engagements
This statement should be challenged: “The NEP views energy security in terms of assured supply. Until domestic sources, particularly the renewable ones, become available in larger volumes, our import dependence for energy supply is set to increase. With high import dependence for commercial primary energy supplies, India has a vested interest in deep overseas engagement across stakeholders.”
                NEP should be aiming at minimising the need to import energy for multiple reasons.  In order to do so the emphasis should be on: (i) minimising the total demand for energy; and (ii) to optimally and sustainably harness the resources available within the country. Sadly, there is not much of a focus to reduce the total demand for energy itself, but only to identify different technologies to meet the ever growing demand.  Instead of trying to shift the total demand for transportation fuels to electric vehicles (EV) and batteries, the focus should be to minimise the transportation needs itself, by suitably modifying our urban areas and the location of industries/ commerce;  adequate development of rural areas; huge emphasis on mass/ public transportation & railways;  and suitably designed disincentive to private passenger vehicles. 
                At present it is hard to find adequate encouragement for the production and usage of bio-fuels in the country.  There is huge potential for sustainably produced bio-fuels, without impacting the food production, and this potential should be optimally harnessed to minimise the import dependence for liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons.
                Knowing well the huge issues associated with nuclear power technology, including the overseas technology, it is truly unfortunate that the country is continuing with its policy of increasing its dependence on nuclear power technology and to import nuclear fuels.
                At a time when the world is moving away from coal power, and when the IPCC has unequivocally asked for massive reduction in the usage of fossil fuels, and when many of the coal power plants in the country are either operating at very low PLF or about to become stranded assets, the country has not yet banned the import of coal.
                NEP should look at all these issues, and clearly stop such ill-conceived import dependent polices.
                The public do not get to read about any R&D efforts in advanced battery and other energy storage technologies; micro/smart grid and associated technologies; ocean energy; geothermal; Concentrated Solar Power (CSP); small size wind turbines; efficient & convenient solar cookers, etc. NEP should laydown concrete action plan to effectively invest adequate resources in the associated R&D efforts.

Chapter 14 - Air Quality
                Instead of looking only at air quality, there is a need to take an objective look at various elements of our environment: air, water, agricultural land and forest in general, and at Climate Change in particular.  With DNEP’s projection for the burning of so much fossil fuel by 2040, it will be impossible to keep air quality at acceptable standards.  Burning of such vast quantities of fossil fuels will have huge deleterious impacts on other elements of the environment too, while lowering the credibility of India’s Climate Change leadership claims.

Chapter 15 - Conclusion India Vision 2040
15.1        The energy scenario for 2040/50 should be the one where the necessary policy and regulatory framework are in place to provide clean, equitable and sustainable energy at reasonable cost with the primary focus on to lift the poor out of the clutches of the poverty.
 15.3       NEP cannot be seen as rational, if it projects an increase in dependence on overseas supply, even 25 years later. With an increased dependence on overseas supply energy security cannot be better than what it is now. It is not clear as to the basis on which the draft has stated: “ …it is hoped that there will be high levels of confidence, devoid of supply threats.”
Hence, all possible efforts to minimise our total energy demand and to meet such a demand by domestic resources should be the primary plank of our energy policy. India is endowed with huge potential in solar, wind and bio-mass energy, and hence the dependence on overseas supply should come down instead of increasing.
15.6.      Energy mix: It is incomprehensible that the overall share of fossil fuels is projected to come down from 81% in 2012 just to 78% in ambitious pathway in 2040; with all the planning and policy interventions will the drop be  just 3% whereas the total energy supply would have registered 2.7 to 3.2 time increase?  This means a vast increase in GHG emissions in absolute terms. What will be our role in combating the global warming threats? With so much of fossil fuel burning will the quality of our air any better than the present quality because of which we have serious health concerns now?

15.8.      Structure of the Industry: At the global level it is projected that by 2050 more than 60% of the energy consumption is likely to be in the form of electricity because of the ease, absence of pollutants at the point of usage, and the fact that all of electricity demand can be met through RE sources. Hence, our efforts should be to increase the share of electricity much higher than that projected; let us say it can be as high as 50% by 2040/50.  NEP should be working towards this end.

“The coastal south and west India, being close to the oil/gas rich West Asia, will witness a more significant role of LNG, including imported coal based plants. “  
Such dependence on imported coal and oil will be against the long term national interests, and against the present policy of the govt. to eliminate coal import. Such projected dependence must be drastically reduced by optimally harnessing the domestic resources of energy.


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